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Op-ed and Analysis

Reading through my thoughts and analysis will provide you to realize a bit more about the context of complex Myanmar politics, in particular dynamics of Arakan politics.

Foreign Policy •

Myanmar’s Earthquake Exposes Political Fault Lines

In the hours after the deadly 7.7 magnitude earthquake, the streets of Mandalay and Sagaing—not far from the epicenter—resembled a war zone. Survivors clawed through debris to free loved ones, with virtually no sign of help from authorities. Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, along with the Mandalay and Sagaing regions were the hardest hit. The death toll in Myanmar surpassed 3,600 people by April 7 and was still climbing as rescue efforts began winding down last week.
FULCRUM •

New Battlefront Emerging in Western Myanmar

The Arakan Army (AA) has gained significant ground against State Administration Council (SAC) troops in western Myanmar. The AA’s gains compound SAC losses in other parts of the country since Operation 1027 in October.

A new battlefront has opened up in western Myanmar. Just weeks after the Operation 1027 offensive against junta forces in late October, the Arakan Army (AA) has chalked up a string of territorial gains against State Administration Council (SAC) forces in Rakhine State. The gains
The Diplomat •

Is Myanmar’s Civil War Pushing the Country Toward Fragmentation?

Resistance forces now face the challenge of building an ethnically inclusive and democratic state, something that no government in Myanmar has ever achieved.

Today, Myanmar stands at a critical juncture in its history. The escalating losses of the Myanmar military due to the coordinated attacks by resistance forces and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) throughout the country have ignited a pivotal debate, both nationally and internationally, about the country’s future trajectory. Is Myanmar heading toward Fragmentation and Chaos?
The Diplomat •

Ceasefire Breach: Operation 1027 Shakes Western Myanmar

On November 13, about 18 days after its inception, Operation 1027 opened a new front in western Myanmar, breaking a year-long informal ceasefire with the Myanmar military. The initial attack was carried out by the Arakan Army (AA), which attacked at least two junta outposts in northern Rakhine State. Operation 1027, which has made rapid gains in northern Shan State and has since expanded to other areas of the country, has now reached the previously quiet west of Myanmar. This expansion presents
The Diplomat Magazine •

‘Operation 1027’: A Turning-Point For Myanmar’s Resistance Struggle?

For the past two years, a string of significant global events, including the Taliban reconquest of Afghanistan, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have diverted international attention from Myanmar’s turmoil and the Myanmar people’s struggles for democracy. Despite the lack of attention, however, the self-defense efforts of the Myanmar people have highlighted the military’s complete incapacity to consolidate the coup d’etat that it launched in February 2021.
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute •

2023/72 “Responses to Humanitarian Needs in Western Myanmar after Cyclone Mocha” by Kyaw Hsan Hlaing

• Category 5-level Cyclone Mocha made landfall on 14 May 2023 in western Myanmar, killing more than 100 lives, causing significant damage and loss in many townships across Rakhine State, and leaving approximately 1.5 million people in urgent need of humanitarian aid.
• The State Administration Council (SAC) military regime restricted United Nations agencies in Myanmar and other aid organisations access to the cyclone-affected communities in Rakhine State. The United League of Arakan (ULA), the
The Diplomat Magazine •

Arakan Rebel Government Takes Lead in Myanmar Cyclone Recovery

Following the arrival of Cyclone Mocha last week, in western Myanmar, the humanitarian situation on the ground is dire. As of May 16, two days after the storm made landfall, approximately 1.5 million people in Rakhine were believed to have been affected by the storm and more than 400,000 buildings including hospitals, schools, and internally displace person (IDP) camps were partially or completely damaged. More than 400 people are reportedly dead, and hundreds remain missing.
The Diplomat Magazine •

How the Arakan Army Has Capitalized on Myanmar’s Coup

Myanmar’s Rakhine State, which borders Bangladesh to the west, is now relatively stable despite the country’s escalating countrywide civil war, under de facto control of the Arakan Army (AA), one of the country’s most powerful ethnic armed groups. Established in 2009 with its political goal of greater autonomy for the people of Rakhine, the AA claims that it now has 30,000 people under arms, around 6,000 of which are supporting its ethnic allies and resistance groups in Kachin, Karen, and Shan states and elsewhere in country.
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute •

2023/35 "Myanmar’s “Sham” Election Threatens the 2025 Goals of the Arakan Rebels" by Kyaw Hsan Hlaing

• After fighting the Myanmar military fiercely for two years, the Arakan Army had, by the end of 2020, established a parallel administration and military bases in Rakhine State. It seemed that “Arakan Dream 2020” was thus accomplished.
• While the relationship between the Rakhine political parties and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) is not clear, the ULA/AA leadership seems to have much closer interactions with the Arakan National Party (ANP) than with the Arakan League of Democracy and Arakan Front Party.
Stimson Center •

Understanding the Arakan Army • Stimson Center

On February 1, 2023, the brutal military in Myanmar marked two years since its seizure of power from the civilian government in 2021. Since then, the country has been plagued by escalated civil war and political and economic turmoil. It is critical to end the military regime in Myanmar for all ethnic groups, especially the ethnic armed revolutionary groups taking the significant role of supporting and fighting alongside the resistance groups across the country.
FULCRUM •

How Would Rakhine Figure in Myanmar’s “Sham” Elections?

The most critical player in Rakhine for the security situation and upcoming elections is the Arakan Army, not the local politicians.

At the two-year mark of the 1 February 2021 coup in Myanmar, the State Administration Council (SAC) regime extended its term for another six months and sought support for elections now planned for August 2023. The SAC’s moves to push ahead with what are likely to be sham elections have stacked the odds in favor of its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Pa

How India Betrayed the Rakhine People – And Why It Matters Today

Twenty-five years ago this week, India’s government betrayed the people of Rakhine State in western Myanmar, when its armed forces smashed a nascent Rakhine revolutionary group in a remote part of the Andaman Islands. In the years since, the Indian government has never referred publicly to the incident, but it continues to resonate among the Rakhine people, who remember it as Gen. Khaing Raza’s Day, or Betrayal of India over Rakhine Revolution Day.
BBC News မြန်မာ •

ရခိုင်မှာ ဘာကြောင့် တိုက်ပွဲတွေ ပြန်ဖြစ်လာလဲ - BBC News မြန်မာ

ရခိုင်ပြည်နယ်အတွင်း ရက္ခိုင့်တပ်တော် အေအေ နဲ့ စစ်ကောင်စီတို့ကြား နှစ်ဖက်စစ်ရေး တင်းမာပြီး တကျော့ပြန်တိုက်ပွဲတွေဟာ ပြည်နယ်တွင်း မြို့နယ်အများစုမှာ ဖြစ်နေပါတယ်။ စစ်ဘေးရှောင်ဦးရေကလည်း သိန်းချီရှိနေပါတယ်။ ၂၀၂၀ ရွေးကောက်ပွဲ နောက်ကာလနဲ့ စစ်အာဏာသိမ်းပြီးစမှာ စစ်ရေးအခြေအနေ အနည်းငယ်တည်ငြိမ်ခဲ့တဲ့ ရခိုင်ဒေသမှာ ဘာကြောင့်အခုလိုတိုက်ပွဲတွေ ပြန်ဖြစ်လာရတာလဲ။ ရက္ခိုင့်တပ် အေအေရဲ့ စစ်ရေးနဲ့ နိုင်ငံရေး ရည်မှန်းချက်တွေအကြောင်း ရခိုင်ပြည်နယ်ဆိုင်ရာ သုတေသီတစ်ဦးဖြစ်တဲ့ ကိုကျော်ဆန်းလှိုင်နဲ့ မညိုလဲ့ရည် မေးမြန်းထားပါတယ်။
The Japan Times •

Japan needs to ratchet up pressure on Myanmar's junta

On Sept. 16, about two months after intensified armed clashes resumed in Myanmar between the state military and the Arakan Army in Rakhine and the southern Chin States, the military regime blocked the United Nations and international humanitarian organizations from accessing six townships, despite the severe humanitarian need.

Two weeks later, the junta further restricted the supply of medicine from Yangon to Rakhine State while at the same time arresting at least two medical doctors.
United States Institute of Peace •

Insurgents in Myanmar’s Rakhine State Return to War on the Military

Serious combat has resumed in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, despite a continuing de facto cease-fire declared by the military just before its coup last year. Unlike previous rounds of fighting in Rakhine that could be viewed as a localized internal conflict, the renewed violence is taking place in the context of a nationwide civil war triggered by the coup, and its consequences are spreading far beyond the state’s borders. The resumption of war in Rakhine State, in short, could be a hinge on which th
Al Jazeera •

Rumbles in Rakhine amid strains between Myanmar military, rebels

Recent skirmishes between Arakan Army and the military have raised concern about the stability of an informal year-long ceasefire.

Since Myanmar’s military staged a coup against Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government on February 1, triggering mass unrest, the formerly restive far-western state of Rakhine has remained relatively peaceful.

But recent skirmishes have raised concern that an informal ceasefire agreed in the long-troubled area in November last year is starting to break down, even as
the Diplomat Magazine •

Relief Agencies Should Push for Independent Access to Myanmar’s Rakhine State

Since February, when Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, staged a coup against the government of Aung San Suu Kyi, Rakhine State in the west of the country has stood out. While other states witnessed massive peaceful demonstrations, followed by deeply troubling indiscriminate violence at the hands of the police and the military, Rakhine remained relatively tranquil.

In November 2020, three months before the coup, the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic armed organization
the Diplomat Magazine •

Arakan Army Seeks to Build ‘Inclusive’ Administration in Rakhine State

Seven months since the military coup in Myanmar, the political wing of the rebel Arakan Army (AA) has significantly expanded its administrative and judicial mechanisms across Rakhine State in western Myanmar, with hundreds of its personnel now effectively administering the region independently of the military junta that rules in Naypyidaw. The group is also attempting to involve the state’s entire population, including the Rohingya Muslims, in the governance of what it hopes will become an auton
Foreign Policy •

Protests Unite Myanmar’s Ethnic Groups Against Common Foe

Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, has killed at least 510 people and detained more than 2,500 others since it took power on Feb. 1. Now terrorized by the military themselves, many people from the Bamar ethnic majority are developing a sense of solidarity with the country’s numerous minority groups. Public apologies for years of indifference and denial of minority people’s experiences have proliferated. “We have learned day by day, and our point of view has changed. We feel really sorry,
The Diplomat Magazine •

Fighting in Maungdaw: A Strategic Turning Point in Western Myanmar?

On the morning of September 16, around two months after intensive clashes resumed between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar military in northern Rakhine State, Bri. Gen. Dr. Nyo Twan Awng, the AA’s deputy commander in chief, shared a message to the Rakhine people through his social media accounts. The message described the return to war against the junta as “a final war and decisive war” for building “the state of the Arakan.”

The AA, the armed wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA), was
United States Institute of Peace •

Myanmar’s Rakhine State: Parties Split, Rebels Rise, and the Junta Schemes

As the coup regime plots a sham election for next year, the volatile political and military conditions in Rakhine could decide its fate.

Myanmar’s military regime has a plan for trying to establish its governing legitimacy next year: In August of 2023, the dictatorship, which overthrew a democratically elected government in early 2021, intends to hold sham elections. A critical piece of this strategy involves maneuvering Myanmar’s welter of small ethnic parties into taking part in the electoral
United States Institute of Peace •

In Myanmar’s Rakhine State, a Fraying Truce May Hold Key to Anti-Regime Fight

A potent ethnic armed group, tied to the resistance, appears to be inching away from a cease-fire and back to the battlefield.

Myanmar has been crippled by growing political turmoil and militant resistance since the army overthrew the elected civilian government on February 1, 2021. Today, most of the country is engulfed in a virtual civil war. In Rakhine State, however, home to one of Myanmar's most powerful ethnic armed organizations, a tenuous peace still prevails under a cease-fire reached
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Foreign Policy •

Myanmar’s Earthquake Exposes Political Fault Lines

In the hours after the deadly 7.7 magnitude earthquake, the streets of Mandalay and Sagaing—not far from the epicenter—resembled a war zone. Survivors clawed through debris to free loved ones, with virtually no sign of help from authorities. Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, along with the Mandalay and Sagaing regions were the hardest hit. The death toll in Myanmar surpassed 3,600 people by April 7 and was still climbing as rescue efforts began winding down last week.
FULCRUM •

Does the Arakan Army have the Capacity to Govern Rakhine? | FULCRUM

The Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar appears to be making enough headway in Rakhine to make it a plausible rival authority someday, not just in the context of warfighting but also administration.As the Arakan Army (AA) gains more ground against the State Administration Council (SAC) regime forces in Rakhine State, analysts are asking questions about the AA’s administrative capacity. The AA has steadily gained momentum against SAC troops since November 2023, when it opened a new front as a part of Ope...